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Now

State abortion restrictions are not the main driver of declines in U.S. abortion.
Reproductive Health
Volume 16, Issue 36
March 2019

Pregnancies, abortions, and pregnancy intentions: a protocol for modeling and reporting global, regional and country estimates

Jonathan Bearak,Guttmacher Institute
Anna Popinchalk,Guttmacher Institute
Gilda Sedgh
Bela Ganatra,World Health Organization
Ann-Beth Moller,World Health Organization
Özge Tunçalp,World Health Organization
Leontine Alkema,University of Massachusetts, Amherst
First published online: March 20, 2019 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-019-0682-0

Background

Estimates of pregnancies, abortions and pregnancy intentions can help assess how effectively women and couples are able to fulfil their childbearing aspirations. Abortion incidence estimates are also a necessary foundation for research on the safety of abortions performed and the consequences of unsafe abortion. Furthermore, periodic estimates of these indicators are needed to help inform policy and programmes.

Methods

We will develop a Bayesian hierarchical times series model which estimates levels and trends in pregnancy rates, abortion rates, and percentages of pregnancies and births unintended for each five-year period between 1990 and 2019. The model will be informed by data on abortion incidence and the percentage of births or pregnancies that were unintended. We will develop a data classification process to be applied to all available data. Model-based estimates and associated uncertainty will take account of data sparsity and quality. Our proposed approach will advance previous work in two key ways. First, we will estimate pregnancy and abortion rates simultaneously, and model the propensity to abort an unintended pregnancy, as opposed to modeling abortion rates directly as in prior work. Secondly, we will produce estimates that are reproducible at the country level by publishing the data inputs, data classification processes and source code.

Discussion

This protocol will form the basis for updated global, regional and national estimates of intended and unintended pregnancy rates, abortion rates, and the percent of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, from 1990 to 2019.

Full article available online in Reproductive Health

Contact the Author

Jonathan Bearak , Guttmacher Institute

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